How an infectious diseases expert thinks the Sydney COVID-19 outbreak will play out

With more than 70 active COVID-19 cases in NSW, concern of a major wave of disease is growing.

Infectious diseases expert at the Australian National University, Professor Peter Collignon, says the situation is “very serious” but he’s hopeful it will remain contained to the Northern Beaches cluster.

“At the moment this looks mainly to be a cluster … meaning most, or nearly all, of them are related as far as they can tell from contact tracing, which is the only good news about this,” he told Stephen Quartermain and Tony Leonard, filling in for Ross and Russel.

“If we see there’s 40 cases today and 50 cases tomorrow, and ongoing numbers, that’s a real concern.

“I think it’s probably more likely the numbers will stabilise and in two or three days will start going down.”

Professor Collignon says the next few days are crucial.

“Over the next day or two it’ll be clear whether this cluster has been brought under control,” he said.

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